In order to plan the workload at elevator capacities in the third and fourth quarters of 2015 and as part of the fourth round of monitoring of cultivated crops in Ukraine, NIBULON’s specialists (analytical sector of production department) have analyzed current prospects of corn yield and corn receipts in the regions of corn cultivation and within the country as a whole.
The results of current condition and prospects of corn yield are for your attention. 
Prerequisites to Form a Corn Yield
Despite certain financial difficulties of agrarians connected with funds during sowing campaign, NIBULON sowed qualitative corn seeds. Taking into consideration that the demand for Ukrainian production batches has changed a little, it is cannot not be considered as negative, but quite the opposite.  Most Ukrainian multinational producers actively invested funds in seed production and improvement thereof to sowing standards last year; thereby, the quality of Ukrainian corn seeds reached the higher level.
In complete doubtfulness and reduction of national currency, the demand for mineral fertilizers has been reduced, thereby influencing the final crop yield. The same things can be stated concerning compliance with technological operations. In chase of saving, the market has focused on generic protection agents leading to the deficiency of high yields.
Certainly, far from all agricultural producers used this method. Most large farmers kept physical volumes of the resource investment in a yield.
In any case, taking into account a little disappointment in the economic result of corn cultivation in 2014 and also an increasing demand for soybean cultivation, the sown areas for corn were reduced by 15 % as compared to the last year’s ones and comprise 4.01 million hectares.
The sowing campaign was 5-10 days late than last year. It was connected with slowly increasing temperatures and air humidity.
The weather conditions promoted high crop shoots over the greater part of Ukraine.
In the first half of June, an anticyclone and high pressure fields formed warm and sometimes even hot but dry weather.
The air temperature often reached 30-32º in the daytime that meets or exceeds the absolute maximums since 1945 for certain days.
The weather changed at the beginning of the last decade of the month. A weather front of low-activity caused various rain showers and small-scale temperature fluctuations over the greater part of the country.
See maps for detailed information on weather conditions during this period. 
Precipitation in July

Percent of Normal Precipitation in July       
 
Although the rain was unsteady in the periods specified, but it allowed to hope for high yields of major crops. The weather was warm and dry at the end of the month, as the atmospheric front moved.
In the first decade of July, warm weather prevailed over the greater part of territories. The weather changed in the second decade of the month, when cold atmospheric fronts from northwest brought thunder storms and heavy rains over the greater part of Ukraine, resulting in a considerable temperature reduction.
The temperature raised considerably in the third decade of July. The weather was hot and dry with a lack of precipitations. According to the weather stations, the number of precipitation comprised 5-46 mm, or 6-52% of normal precipitation.
At present it is hot. The corn condition becomes worth in most of regions in Ukraine. 
Current Yield Situation
At present the corn yield situation is quite alarm in the regions entering the so called “corn belt” in Ukraine. The lack of precipitation, soil and air drought may cause a considerable reduction in corn yield.
The vegetation health indices for the last four years (according to the website NOAA (http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/star/index.php) are compared below. 
2015 – 4.01 million hectares

 2014  – 4.62 million hectares. Gross yield – 28.4 million tons. Crop yield – 6.1 t/ha
 
 2013  – 4.88 million hectares. Gross yield – 30.8 million tons. Crop yield – 6.4 tha
 
 2012  – 4.37 million hectares. Gross yield – 20.9 million tons. Crop yield – 4.8 tha
 
Taking into consideration the given information, it is possible to state that the vegetation level of late crops in separate regions of the country is extremely low. First of all, it concerns the northern and western parts of Ukraine as well as separate parts in the central regions. The situation is also becoming worse in the eastern part of the country, but it will influence a corn yield less, as little corn is grown in this area.
The regions having more chances to harvest high yields are located in the central part of the country and will form the main share of gross yield of corn this season. They are Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Poltava, Summy, and part of Kyiv and Kharkiv regions. The southern regions also demonstrate a high index, but this will not significantly influence gross yield of crops. Corn is not cultivated here. Stress conditions in a number of regions will also decrease a yield level. 
Consolidated Stress Level

Stress Caused by High Temperatures
 
 
 Field Monitoring Results Demonstrated a High Level of Corn Deterioration 
Photo 1. North of Mykolayiv region
 
 Photo 2. Overall view. North of Mykolayiv region
 
 Photo 3. Overall view. North of Vinnytsya region
 
 Photo 4. North of Vinnytsya region

 Photo 5. Kharkiv region.
Corn deterioration in a number of fields prevents from demonstrating its high potential:
crops are undersized with the low level of corncobs formation.

 Photo 6. Kharkiv region

 Photo 7. Low level of corncob formation

 Photo 8. Plants of 160-180 cm height
 
 Photo 9. Late crops deterioration

 Photo 10. Crop deterioration. Vinnytsya region

 Photo 11. Crop deterioration. Mykolayiv region

 Photo 12. Immature crops. Salvage processes and destruction of the lower part of a plant 
 
 Photo 13. Destruction of the bottom level leaf

Photo 14. Destruction of the bottom level leaf

 Photo 15. Destruction of the bottom level leaf. Vinnytsya region
 
 Photo 16. Destruction of the bottom level leaf. Lugansk region. Grain formation is disrupted
 
 Photo 17. Grain formation is disrupted
 
 Photo 18. Grain formation is disrupted

 Photo 19. Grain formation is disrupted

 Photo 20. Grain formation is disrupted
 
 Photo 21. Immature corncob

 Photo 22. Immature corncob

Photo 23. Immature corncob. Soil drought

 Photo 24.Soil drought
 
 Photo 25. Soil drought
Most pictures were taken on the fields with high soil fertility. NIBULON also used pictures from regional test fields. At present corn with potentially high yield indices has such a condition. 
Forecast
Taking into account the given information and calculations of biological corn yield performed by NIBULON’s regional agrarian services, we have made a corn yield forecast in 2015 by regions.
 
Conclusions
The existing potential will enable to achieve a crop yield at the level of 21.0 million tons of grain. The limiting factors will be the reduction in mineral nutrition level, the increase in generic plant protection agents and, first of all, soil drought in a number of regions with a high specific share of corn crops. The total gross yield of corn can be compared with 2011 and 2012, when the corn gross output comprised 22.5 and 20.9 million tons respectively.  
At present the ripening processes are speeding up. Corn harvesting will be started early, at the end of the first and at the beginning of the second decade of September. The first grain batches will be of low quality and of low grain unit.
The dynamics of grain delivery to ports may be compared with specified years with terms shifted up to 15 days. The batch delivery to inland silos will be correlated with a crop yield level in the region where NIBULON’s facilities are located.