Examination of cultivated grain and oilseeds is a widely used analysis and research tool in world practice. Ministries of agribusiness (USDA, MARS), various field associations, and private analytical institutions (ProFarmer, FCStone) usually deal with it. Reports on the results of these examinations usually have a tremendous impact on the situation in the world market. 
Market specialists, processors and consumers are eagerly awaiting these reports, because a strategy for purchasing and sales is formed, short-term or long-term plans are made, and other management decisions are made based on their results. 
Our company cultivates 83,000 ha of land in various soil and climatic zones of Ukraine: steppe, forest-steppe, polissia – in the east, west, north, and south of the country.
This year is unique for the agricultural sector. It can be a record one by all productivity options and exceed the yield of 2013-2014. The largest number of parallels in late crops forecast can be drawn with 2013.  
The specific feature of this year’s harvesting of early crops is that crops in the zone with usually high quality indicators of wheat (in the south) were harvested until July’s rains. At the same time, the western region, which is characterized by low yields of wheat, faced a problem of completing work in a short term due to unfavourable weather conditions. This led to diseases of ears and grain, as well as to a large number of sprouted grains (up to 20 %).  This situation caused a reasonable concern among ministries experts regarding the country’s food security.
At the same time, heavy rains which significantly impeded harvesting in the central, northern and western regions (harvesting campaign has been suspended for three weeks) resulted in the critical phases of late crops development. The latest USDA report highlights the possibility of receiving a total gross yield of corn of 31 million tons.
In recent years, relevant public services are not always accurate and transparent when forming and publishing forecasts of crop yields. Using unique locations of the fields, NIBULON regularly examines late crops to create its own forecast base. Thus, our company forms the survey data independently from other analytical services and for the needs of its own trading, logistics and production units. Following the openness of NIBULON to its partners in the grain market, the management decided to conduct regular examinations of crops with coverage of the situation in the mass media, the Internet media, etc.
One of the ways of openness in communication is also AGROPROFI, a well-known newspaper, in which we cover the prices on grain markets, forecast the dynamics of their changes. From now on, we start covering the crops state in terms of crops and regions. We call on the agricultural sector specialists to join and contribute to conducting examinations together with our analysts. We will continue to generate similar ideas and promote closer relationship between all grain market players. We hope to receive support of the public services and ministries.
Until very recently we hadoptimistic expectations about the harvest of late crops. But after the last examination we have to make some adjustments to both the quantitative and qualitative indices of these crops. We have come to the conclusion that certain southern regions will have losses due to the drought at the end of the harvesting of early crops. The yield of corn grown on dry-farming land in Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk and Luhansk regions will not exceed 4-5 t/ha. At the same time, the rains in the western and northern regions led to the development of diseases of crops that will have negative consequences in the future. You can find more information about them below.

Corn smut. It is caused by a fungus Ustilago zeae Beckm. Spores are spread by wind, precipitation, and insects. It affects corn ears, stems and reproductive organs in the form of hard tumors up to 15 cm. Plant organs can be affected in any period of their growth. Chlamydospores stay on plants remains, in soil, and on seeds up to 12 months. Feeding animals with silage containingcorn smut does not affect animal health. The main measures are the observance of crop rotation and sowing of treated seeds or stable hybrids. 

Head smut. It is caused by a fungus Sorosporium reilianum Mc.Alp. It is found in the major corn growing areas.  It affects inflorescence, tassel, corn ear. During the flowering time tassel turns into a black smut, corn ears – into black dry formation that sprays slowly until the plant matures. Losses are much higher than when affected by corn smut. Monoculture, late sowing, warm spring and torrid summer promotes its spread. Protection measures: agrotechnical measures and seed treatment.
Such specimens are found in the western region of our state

In the east and south, there are such plants that are infected by Fusarium wilt disease.  It looks like this

The harmfulness of the disease is very high: affected corn ears are of low commodity quality; they are quickly destroyed by mold fungi during harvesting. Corn seeds with a strong degree of lesions of fusariosis lose germination, and seed with an unharmed embryo gives weak sprouts, which usually die, not reaching the soil surface. F. moniliforme fungus does not have toxic properties. But it has been found that other types of fusariosis form mycotoxins in the grains, which can cause toxicosis in animals, which are manifested in severe liver damage and often lead to death. 
There are no safe levels of mycotoxins content. Even small content has a negative effect and the ability to accumulate in the body. If mycotoxins are already present in the harvested grain, they cannot be disinfected either by chemical treatment or by high temperature.
When a plant is infected by Fusarium wilt disease, the following types of mycotoxins are formed: zearalenone, fumonisin, deoxynivalenol, T-2 toxin.
Mycotoxins producing Fusarium fungi are the most common in the world.
The sources of the infection are vegetable remnants (husk, corn stubble), soil, and infected corn seeds. Protection measures: clearing the field of the after-harvesting remnants and autumnal plowing; observance of crop rotation; optimal sowing time; optimal doses of fertilizers; reduction in the number of corn borer; seed treatment.
Major measures of corn protection
Timely and qualitative soil cultivation and dressing system in accordance with zonal recommendations and results of agro-chemical analysis of soil. The sowing of district hybrids will destroy the wintering stock of mold, root and stem rot, and smut. Sowing of seeds after the onset of a stable average daily soil temperature of 12 ° C at a depth of 10 cm. Soil compaction in conditions of insufficient soil moisture. Sowing of resistant to diseases and stress conditions hybrids or varieties in short period of time, which is economically beneficial and improves the ecological conditions of agrocenosis.
The obligatory protection of seeds during the period of germination from the complex of diseases is based on its treatment with one of the permitted agrochemicals from “The list of pesticides and agrochemicals …”. Along with seed disinfectants, trace elements and growth regulators are used. Compliance with the application of herbicides and timely protection from corn pests will promote tolerance of the crop. In the early manifestation of symptoms of helminthosporiosis, rust and under favorable weather conditions, especially when tassel appears, spraying of crops with fungicide is carried out in accordance with application regulations (K. Bannikova, Candidate of Agricultural Sciences, senior specialist of the Department for Forecasts and Phytosanitary Diagnosis of Plants, M. Yavdoshchenko, Candidate of Agricultural Sciences, senior scientist, Plant Protection Laboratory employee, Institute of Agriculture of Steppe Zone of National Academy of Agrarian Sciences).
Given the current phases of corn development in the main regions of the crop cultivation, as well as the specifics of the identified diseases, it can be said that the possibilities of counteracting the deterioration of the crop quality are significantly limited. Effective struggle against the aforementioned plants diseases is possible at this stage only on separate areas, which in fact will not significantly change the situation in the country as a whole.
In addition to raising the mycotoxins level and inconsistencies with export conditions, reduction in yield from 5 % to 25 % is possible; according to our calculations, it will be 5-7 million tons. 
Unfavourable weather conditions (at first rain and then drought) resulted in diseases, which in turn led to the deterioration of late crops quality and quantity this season.
It is worth mentioning the difficult situation on the grain market: full grain storage facilities, the lack of rolling stock on the railways; there is a risk of shortage of storage space for the harvesting and initial storage of late crops. When silos are full of grain – harvesting of corn is impossible. It is a crop that cannot be stored in farm conditions, it needs to be processed with the help of stationary grain equipment at linear elevators. Such a situation may repeat the 2016 situation, when a large part of the generous harvest was left in the fields. Our goal is to prevent repetition of such a situation.  
All this leads to the risk of reducing exports by 20-30 %, which will amount to 5-7 million tons, while the grain exported can be of poor quality and do not bring the desired financial result to the producer.
We usually provide such information to our external partners in the global grain market that receive grain products from us. This typical information is provided to specialists, and now it will be provided to you.